McCain’s Strategist Agrees With Putin

Political statements do sound truer if they come identical from actual or potential enemies. Is there therefore a high chance that Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia a month ago, has been “encouraged” by people trying to support McCain, as Russia’s strongman Vladimir Putin has recently suggested to CNN (Aug 28)?

In an interview in the Black Sea city of Sochi on Thursday, Putin said the U.S. had encouraged Georgia to attack the autonomous region of South Ossetia.

Putin said his defense officials had told him it was done to benefit a presidential candidate — Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are competing to succeed George W. Bush — although he presented no evidence to back it up.

“U.S. citizens were indeed in the area in conflict,” Putin said. “They were acting in implementing those orders doing as they were ordered, and the only one who can give such orders is their leader.”

Just listen now to Thomas Rath, “leading Republican strategist in the swing state of New Hampshire” according to Bloomberg news and the IHT (Sep 7):

“If in October we’re talking about Russia and national defense and who can manage America in a difficult world, John McCain will be president,” predicts Thomas Rath, the leading Republican strategist in the swing state of New Hampshire. “If we’re talking largely about domestic issues and health care, Barack Obama probably will be president.”

In other words, as explained by article’s author Albert R Hunt:

If Russia invades another country on Oct. 20 or Iran detonates a nuclear weapon, advantage McCain; if there’s another Bear Stearns meltdown, or a stock market crash, put a few points on the Obama side.

A similar point is made rather more forcefully by leftist Tony Wood in the pages of the London Review of Book (Sep 11):

So why would the US approve a military adventure it had no intention of materially supporting? Not every development is part of an infernal neocon conspiracy, but it is nonetheless clear that the White House would make palpable gains from the Georgian crisis, whatever the outcome. If Saakashvili succeeded in retaking South Ossetia, he would have faced down Russia and demonstrated Georgia’s increasing readiness for Nato membership. If, on the other hand, Russia defeated Georgia, it would re-emphasise to Eastern Europe the need for US security guarantees. Sure enough, within two days of the start of fighting in Tskhinvali, Poland and the US finally reached agreement on the missile shield. Georgia itself appears all the more in need of US backing, and several politicians and commentators have suggested that the crisis is grounds for the country’s immediate admission to Nato. It could also justify the US increasing its military presence in Georgia, from a mere 100 Special Forces troops to, say, a long-term base. Moreover, the war has created ample opportunity for ramping up the discourse of a New Cold War – considerably improving the electoral prospects of John McCain, whose foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann worked for Saakashvili until May this year. All this, in exchange for a short war the US didn’t have to fight.

“All this, in exchange for a short war the US didn’t have to fight”.

Obama vs. McCain Electoral-College Forecasting

A list of websites (from Italian blog “noisefromAmerika“) devoted to more serious US election forecasting than the usual, absolutely pointless nationwide polls: for the simple reasons that Presidents are elected via the Electoral College system, not directly.

• Andrea Moro’s 2008 election forecasts (currently: Obama’s winning probability 98.3%)
• The Princeton Election Consortium (currently: Obama 300 votes. McCain 238)
• University of Iowa’s Winner-Takes-All Market (currently: Obama 56.5%. McCain 43.5%)
• RealClearPolitics Electoral College (currently: Obama 273 votes. McCain 265)
• FiveThirtyEight’s Projections (currently: Obama 61.2%. McCain 38.8%)
• Intrade’s Prediction Market (currently: Obama 52.1%. McCain 47.5%)

The Big Lies of the 2008 US Presidential Election

• John McCain is not as conservative as he tries so hard to make you believe
• Barack Obama is not as conservative as he tries so hard to make you believe

And no, there’s no typo in the text above…

Obama’s Swift Riposte to McCain’s Challenge

NOTE ADDED SEP 8: Gov. Palin’s Vogue cover below is a fake

Denver, Aug 31 (MNN) – Sen. Barack Obama, Democratic Nominee for the 2008 US Presidential Election, has recruited today two well-known characters to fight back the unexpected challenge from the youth/women side by Sen. John McCain and his VP choice, Gov. Sarah Palin.

Sen. Obama said he was very glad to introduce, in the newly-created positions of Vice-Vice-Presidents, Betty Boop and Swee’Pea.

His remarks may cause controversy though (“Betty would look better on Vogue!” and “Swee’Pea’s got much less experience in foreign or any other matters“) .

According to uninformed sources, Sen. McCain is planning to up the ante by revealing that he himself years ago was in a Hollywood blockbuster (the second episode of Jurassic Park), playing a character named “Kelly Curtis Malcolm” …

John “July 4th” McCain to the Rescue

Coincidences pile up in the extremely good news of the rescue in Colombia of Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages: among them, the fact that US Presidential Candidate John McCain, outspent at home and behind in the polls, is visiting Colombia in the same period, just by pure chance of course.

McCain is so lucky he will be able to bring home three American hostages just in time for the 4th of July. Furthermore, it is now known that Colombian President Alvaro Uribe considers the US Senator trustworthy enough to reveal all details of an extremely risky rescue attempt, the night before.

The only thing missing is a picture of Obama with an “I love FARC” t-shirt and the White House will see another Republican President.

Republican Alert: Major Presidential Speeches Warning

The Economist quotes outgoing Republican congressman Tom Davis:

When Bush tries to articulate a vision, he will butcher the Gettysburg Address. Obama, he will make an A&P grocery list sing.

Obama has already managed to star in a “presidential speech” in Philadelphia, when challenged about race. The risk for McCain is to inspire more exceptional performances, eg about women (after attacks on Michelle Obama) and white working-class poverty (if remarks of Obama being too sophisticated for his own good keep coming).

Yet more signs that this is going to be a sedate campaign, with two candidates simply too nice to each other to inspire any enthusiasm…

Another Good Reason to Vote McCain

(read here for Four-to-One Reasons to Vote McCain)

Albert R Hunt correctly reminds his readers that “the Republican political establishment is looking to the devil to deliver them, the man many have depicted as the incarnation of evil: John McCain“. That makes the upcoming elections of relatively higher importance than usual, in the long run.

Were McCain to lose, in fact, the Nasty Faction of the US Republican Party will simply come back and drag (ruin) the GOP in several more years of rather outdated anti-liberal resentments.

If the senior Senator from Arizona succeeds instead, against incredibly powerful odds, then there could be some basis to get the whole American political system into the XXI century. Finally!

 

Feeling Just Fine About USA 2008

I am not that worried this year about the results of the Presidential elections in the USA.

If Hillary Clinton wins, we’ll get four years of Clintonism. Nothing to celebrate, but not that bad either.

If Barack Obama wins, we’ll get kick-started into the XXI century, with an experimentally fresh jump in the unknown (a bit like Reagan in 1981, and Clinton in 1993…).

If John McCain wins, there’ll be the steady hand of a maverick commanding the Superpower nation. Who knows, maybe like fellow ex-serviceman Eisenhower in the 1950’s, President McCain will be able to isolate the centers of power from the Military-Industrial Complex that has been pushing the USA towards an interminable series of wars and ingerences, for more than a generation.

Plenty to be optimistic about 2009 onwards then…

My personal preferences:

Obama-Clinton: Obama.
McCain-Clinton: McCain
McCain-Obama: I’d likely stay home as a sign of my approval, whatever the result.