Obama vs. McCain Electoral-College Forecasting
A list of websites (from Italian blog “noisefromAmerika“) devoted to more serious US election forecasting than the usual, absolutely pointless nationwide polls: for the simple reasons that Presidents are elected via the Electoral College system, not directly.
- Andrea Moro’s 2008 election forecasts (currently: Obama’s winning probability 98.3%)
- The Princeton Election Consortium (currently: Obama 300 votes. McCain 238)
- University of Iowa’s Winner-Takes-All Market (currently: Obama 56.5%. McCain 43.5%)
- RealClearPolitics Electoral College (currently: Obama 273 votes. McCain 265)
- FiveThirtyEight’s Projections (currently: Obama 61.2%. McCain 38.8%)
- Intrade’s Prediction Market (currently: Obama 52.1%. McCain 47.5%)